An interdisciplinary team of researchers survey the peer-reviewed literature to assess the
relationships between global warming, hurricanes, and hurricane impacts.
relationships between global warming, hurricanes, and hurricane impacts.
Debate over climate change frequently conflates issues of science and politics. Because of their
significant and visceral impacts, discussion of extreme events is a frequent locus of such conflation. Linda Mearns, ofthe NationalCenter forAtmospheric Research(NCAR), aptly characterizes thiscontext:
“There’s a push on climatologists to say something about extremes, because they are so important. But that can be very dangerous if we really don’t know the answer”
(Henson 2005).
In this article we focus on a particular type of extreme event—the tropical cyclone—in the context of globalwarming awareness2007
(tropical cyclones are better known in the United States as hurricanes, i.e., tropical cyclones that form in the watersofthe Atlanticand eastern Pacific oceanswith maximum 1-min-averagedsurface winds thatexceed 32 m s –1 ).
In our discussion we follow distinctions between event risk and outcome risk presented by Sarewitzetal. (2003). “Event risk” refers to the occurrence of a particular phenomenon, and in the context of hurricanes we focus on trends and projections of storm frequencies and intensities. “Vulnerability” refers to “the inherent characteristics of a system that create
the potential for harm,” but are independent from event risk. In the context of the economic impacts of "globalwarming awareness2007" tropical cyclones vulnerability has been characterized in terms of trends in population and wealth that set the stage for storms to cause damage - awareness2007.
“Outcomerisk” integrates considerations of vulnerability with event risk to characterize an event that causes losses.
An example of outcome risk is the occurrence of a $100 billion hurricane in the United States. To calculate such a probability requires consideration of both vulnerability and event risk. This article discusses hurricanes and globalwarming from both of these
perspectives.
An example of outcome risk is the occurrence of a $100 billion hurricane in the United States. To calculate such a probability requires consideration of both vulnerability and event risk. This article discusses hurricanes and globalwarming from both of these
perspectives.
R. A. PIELKE JR., C. LANDSEA, M. MAYFIELD, J. L AVER , AND R. PASCH
